Scope warns extra costs of disability will rocket over next 5 years as MPs set to vote on ‘catastrophic’ benefits cuts

Economic analysis by disability equality charity Scope shows ‘Disability Price Tag’ expected to rise to £1,224 per month or almost £15,000 a year by 2029-30 [1]
Despite government concessions, many disabled people in future will face huge extra costs with little or no support from PIP, pushing them into poverty

Scope’s latest annual Price Tag analysis finds the extra costs disabled people face will increase significantly over the next 5 years. It comes as the government plans to cut benefits for disabled people.[2]

Economic analysis has been released by the disability equality charity on the eve of the second reading of the welfare bill tomorrow (July 1). The bill will set plans to restrict access to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) into legislation.

On Friday the government announced the changes would only apply to new claimants. But Scope is warning the concessions will create a two-tier system. By 2029/2030, more than 400,000 disabled people could be left facing hundreds in extra disability-related costs with no or very limited support from PIP.[3]

Price Tag report

The Disability Price Tag report – released annually by Scope - finds extra costs are now at £1,095 a month. Up from last year’s Price Tag which stood at £1,010 every month. Even for those who receive benefits, there is an average shortfall of £630 every month, as the payments don’t go far enough. This has a devastating impact on disabled people’s standard of living.[4]

Many disabled people are already unable to heat their homes or buy vital mobility equipment. Scope fears benefit cuts will have a devastating impact on disabled people’s health, ability to live independently or work.

Calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) inflation forecasts show the Price Tag for disabled people will rise even further over the next few years. It is estimated to rise from £1,095 in 2025/2026, with a benefits shortfall of £630, rising to a Price Tag of £1,224 by 2029/30, with a £704 shortfall.

James Taylor, executive director of strategy at Scope, said:

“Life costs an enormous amount more when you’re disabled. Whether it’s higher electricity bills because of medical equipment to power. Or higher heating bills because of health conditions affected by the cold.

“Our latest analysis finds the price tag of disability is now £1,095 a month. A figure only set to increase in the coming years unless action is taken.

“The concessions put forward by government will just create a two-tier system, where huge numbers of disabled people face the disability price tag with little or no support from PIP.

“The government must change course on these catastrophic cuts now, and properly co-produce with disabled people on how to reform our welfare system.”

Notes to editors

The full report will be available at www.scope.org.uk/campaigns/disability-price-tag

Year on year projected rises to the Disability Price Tag:

£1,130 in 2025 to 2026, with a benefits shortfall of £650
£1,153 in 2026 to 2027, with a shortfall of £664 
£1,176 in 2027 to 2028, with a shortfall £667
£1,200 in 2028 to 2029, with a shortfall of £690

Rising to £1,224 by the 2029 to 2030 financial year, with an average shortfall of £704.

Methodology:

Scope’s ‘Disability Price Tag’ is based on analysis of the Family Resources Survey (FRS). The FRS is a dataset published annually. It provides facts and figures about the incomes and living circumstances of households and families in the UK.

We’ve measured the standard of living based on households' ability to afford things, using material deprivation questions. Like ability to buying household contents insurance. Repairing or replacing broken electrical goods, having small amounts of spending money and enough to save a little.

Our analysis has used the FRS for the 2022 to 2023 financial year, to calculate the Disability Price Tag. This figure was uprated in line with Consumer Price Index (CPI) and OBR forecasts of inflation to obtain latest and projected Disability Price Tag figures. We did not use the latest FRS for the 2023 to 2024 financial year. Due to the new way the Office for National Statistics measures material deprivation, only 25% of the survey participants in this financial year have completed the original material deprivation variables that Scope has used in previous publications.

To calculate the average benefits shortfall, we have calculated monthly average equivalised Personal Independent Payments (PIP) income across households from the FRS for 2022 to 2023 financial year. Similarly, these figures were projected using OBR forecasts for inflation up to 2029 to 2030 financial year. We compared the projections of extra costs estimates with those of monthly average PIP income, and the difference is the estimated shortfall in each financial year.

The estimated shortfalls do not take the impact of the proposed reform of cutting PIP and Universal Credit (UC) benefits. But they highlight that those losing their PIP income entirely will be in a precarious financial position and will still face high extra costs.

References:

Scope’s Disability Price Tag 2025
Resolution Foundation
Spring Statement 2025 health and disability benefit reforms – impacts
Scope’s Disability Price Tag 2025
Resolution Foundation: No Workaround